VotePredictor
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Connecticut District 5 election, 2026

Jahana Hayes vs. Chris Shea. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Jahana Hayes favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+12.1
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+6.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging D+6.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+15.9.

Republican

Chris Shea

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
OnMessage (via Wikipedia)Grade B-10-01D+6.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Jahana HayesDEM · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $1.1M11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTECTION FUND$52k
  2. FRONTLINE PROTECTION FUND$19k
  3. CLARK FRONTLINE VICTORY FUND$19k
  4. BEKENSTEIN, ANITA$7k
  5. BEKENSTEIN, JOSHUA$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$306k
  2. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$57k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$49k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$35k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$25k

States

  1. CT$217k
  2. CA$129k
  3. NY$82k
  4. MA$36k
  5. TX$20k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Chris SheaREP$466k raised
Spent $412kCash on hand $54k21% from donors under $200Self-funded $600
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. CHRIS SHEA VICTORY FUND$32k
  2. CHRIS SHEA VICTORY FUND$32k
  3. GALVIN, ERIC$11k
  4. GAVIN, JONATHAN$11k
  5. REED, TYSON$11k

Industries

  1. Retired$101k
  2. Manufacturing & Industrial$22k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$11k

States

  1. CT$173k
  2. FL$40k
  3. RI$12k
  4. MA$9k
  5. TX$9k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CT-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Connecticut's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Jahana Hayes(D)D+6.8
2022Jahana Hayes(D)D+0.8
2014Elizabeth H. Esty(D)D+7.4
2012Elizabeth H. Esty(D)D+2.6
2010Christopher Murphy(D)D+8.1
2006Christopher Murphy(D)D+12.9
2002Nancy L. Johnson(R)R+11.0

Candidate news

Inspired by Seattle Program, Jayapal Bill Would Help US Families Buy Fruits and Veggies

As Americans face rising grocery prices under President Donald Trump and rally behind progressive policies and primary candidates, US Rep. Pramila Jayapal on Thursday introduced a bill that shows what kind of proposals could become reality with more Democrats…

Common Dreams · July 2, 2026
Dem Rep Who Claims To Want Border Security Regrets Voting For The Laken Riley Act

Democratic Connecticut Rep. Jahana Hayes said she regrets voting for a bipartisan bill to detain illegal migrants accused of committing criminal offenses.

The Daily Caller · April 11, 2025
'I’m still talking, please': CNN town hall gets heated after Republican cuts off Dem

A Democratic lawmaker’s brutal takedown of what she characterized as the unscrupulous actions Elon Musk is engaging in as head of the Department of Government Efficiency sparked a tense clash Thursday night when Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) tried to squeeze in his…

Raw Story · April 11, 2025
Lawmakers share messages for President Trump at CNN town hall

Republican Reps. Mike Lawler of New York and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania, and Democrat Reps. Jahana Hayes of Connecticut and Derek Tran of California shared their messages to the American people and President Donald Trump at a CNN town hall moderated by Ja…

CNN · April 11, 2025

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CT-4 · DE-1