Democratic
Sarah Trone Garriott
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Zach Nunn favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.0
56%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+3.12026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Zach Nunn
Incumbent representative for IA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IA-3. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Iowa's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
How Labor Scored a Surprising Win in the GOP-Controlled House
Something unusual happened last week that didn’t attract sufficient attention. It concerned the latest in what’s been a heartening recent series of House Republican rebellions against President Donald Trump. Congressional Republicans have bucked Trump lately …
The New Republic · December 17, 2025
Why Corporate Lawyers Should Care About Supply Chain Resiliency in Emerging Technologies
On September 2, 2025, U.S. Representative Zachary Nunn sent a letter to the chair of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) highlighting concerns over ownership transparency of certain bitcoin mining firms and suppliers connected to …
Columbia.edu · October 14, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗