Democratic
Sarah Trone Garriott
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Iowa District 3 election, 2026
Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Zach Nunn favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.4
59%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+4.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+6.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+1.5.
Republican
Zach Nunn
Incumbent representative for IA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sarah Trone GarriottDEM$8.1M raised
Spent $6.9MCash on hand $1.2M42% from donors under $200Self-funded $120
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2.0M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$600k
- Not Reported$596k
- Retired$305k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$178k
States
- IA$1.6M
- CA$1.4M
- NY$649k
- MA$307k
- DC$185k
Zach NunnREP · incumbent$6.1M raised
Spent $5.6MCash on hand $621k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- TEAM NUNN$882k
- GROW THE MAJORITY$818k
- DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$349k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$332k
- AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$28k
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$216k
- Retired$198k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$82k
- Not Reported$47k
- Legal & Professional Services$31k
States
- IA$204k
- FL$127k
- TX$94k
- NY$94k
- CA$93k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Iowa's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
How Labor Scored a Surprising Win in the GOP-Controlled House
Something unusual happened last week that didn’t attract sufficient attention. It concerned the latest in what’s been a heartening recent series of House Republican rebellions against President Donald Trump. Congressional Republicans have bucked Trump lately …
The New Republic · December 17, 2025
Why Corporate Lawyers Should Care About Supply Chain Resiliency in Emerging Technologies
On September 2, 2025, U.S. Representative Zachary Nunn sent a letter to the chair of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) highlighting concerns over ownership transparency of certain bitcoin mining firms and suppliers connected to …
Columbia.edu · October 14, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗