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Toss-up · 2008 House
Minnesota House
In the 2008 Minnesota House race, Michele Bachmann (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
D+1.3
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+2.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2008-10-292
University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs2008-10-225
SurveyUSA2008-10-216
Public Opinion Strategies2008-10-128
Grove Insight2008-10-111
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 Minnesota House race?
Michele Bachmann (R) won, by about 3.0 points (R+3.0).
When was the 2008 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.