Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
D+1.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+2.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 625 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2008-10-22 | 430 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-21 | 621 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-12 | 400 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-11 | 400 | R+4.0 | 1 |