Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.5 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-16 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-10 | 598 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2012-10-03 | 403 | R+2.0 | 1 |