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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, Patrick Ryan (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.3
Final polls said
D+9.7
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+9.7 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 13 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2024-10-255
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
Patrick Ryan (D) won, by about 14.3 points (D+14.3).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.