New York House

Actual result

D+14.4

Final polls said

D+9.7

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+11.2

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+11.2	3.2	✓
2	Emerson College	D+9.7	4.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 95%	0.002	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
3	VotePredictor	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
4	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Race to the WH	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 90%	0.011	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
13	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Emerson College	2024-10-25	450	D+9.7	5