VotePredictor
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New York District 23 election, 2026

Aaron Gies vs. Nick Langworthy.

VotePredictor forecast
Nick Langworthy favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+20.2
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Aaron Gies

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-23. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in New York's 23rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NY-22 · NY-24