Democratic
Aaron Gies
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New York District 23 election, 2026
Aaron Gies vs. Nick Langworthy. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Nick Langworthy favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+17.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+21.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging R+19.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+16.1.
Republican
Nick Langworthy
Incumbent representative for NY-23. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Nick LangworthyREP · incumbent$2.7M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $2.0M3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$116k
- Legal & Professional Services$100k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$50k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$49k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$48k
States
- NY$666k
- VA$95k
- DC$59k
- FL$19k
- MD$14k
Aaron GiesDEM$678k raised
Spent $618kCash on hand $54k30% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GIES, AARON$56k
- TURSHMAN, ALFRED$14k
- LAW, WAYNE$7k
- HALL, GAIL$7k
- NEWBURY, KAYE$6k
Industries
- Unemployed$191k
- Not Reported$123k
- Retired$15k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$11k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$10k
States
- NY$424k
- FL$5k
- NC$3k
- CA$3k
- VA$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 23rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Langworthy prioritizing newborn health in U.S. with Surge to Save Newborns Act
A new bill has been introduced in Washington, D.C. by Western New York Congressman Nick Langworthy (R, NY-23) that will expand criticalaccess for newborn screenings across all 50 states. Read more from WBEN: | WBEN
Audacy.com · September 25, 2026
TPA Leads Coalition Urging Congress to Pass the Recycled Materials Attribution Act
WASHINGTON, July 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Yesterday, the Taxpayers Protection Alliance (TPA) joined 11 other organizations in urging lawmakers to support H.R. 7502, the Recycled Materials Attribution Act (RMAA), as introduced by Rep. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.) …
PRNewswire · July 14, 2026
Republicans Prove Irony Is Dead With Vote Condemning Fascism
American politics has come a long way since World War II.More than 250,000 Americans lost their lives fighting fascism in the European theater between 1942 and 1945, but decades later, that fervor to reject the destructive ideology seems to have died amongst …
The New Republic · November 18, 2025
Ex-NYS GOP chair and Trump ally backs Cuomo for mayor to stop ‘communist’ Zohran Mamdani
Upstate Rep. Nick Langworthy, the former New York State Republican Party chairman, endorsed Andrew Cuomo instead of GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa for mayor to stop "communist" Zohran Mamdani.
New York Post · October 30, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗