Democratic
Alissa Ellman
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New York District 24 election, 2026
Alissa Ellman vs. Claudia Tenney. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Claudia Tenney favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+18.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Claudia Tenney
Incumbent representative for NY-24. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-24. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Claudia TenneyREP · incumbent$3.1M raised
Spent $2.6MCash on hand $836k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$176k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$109k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$38k
- Legal & Professional Services$27k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$24k
States
- NY$261k
- FL$72k
- CA$62k
- VA$49k
- TX$43k
Alissa EllmanDEM$452k raised
Spent $406kCash on hand $46k41% from donors under $200Self-funded $33k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$130k
- Retired$13k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$10k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$7k
- Not Reported$5k
States
- NY$200k
- NC$5k
- CA$2k
- WA$1k
- WV$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-24; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 24th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
House Intelligence Chairman Crawford and Rep. Tenney Host Roundtable in New York on CCP Counterintelligence Threats
Today, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Rick Crawford (AR-01) and Rep. Claudia Tenney (NY-24) hosted a roundtable discussion at Hancock Air National Guard Base in Syracuse, New York, with federal, state, and private-sector partners on…
Globalsecurity.org · September 18, 2026
GOP lawmaker urges action over Europe's Israel boycott
Republican representative Claudia Tenney urged the Treasury Department on Wednesday to review whether European measures targeting Israel qualify as an international boycott under US tax law, and to ad...
Biztoc.com · September 9, 2026
MAGA lawmaker's bizarre warning about New York parade mystifies critics: "Girl, what?"
A MAGA lawmaker's rambling warning about the Knicks celebrations confused critics online.Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) said on Fox Business, "I'm worried" after seeing footage of the New York Knicks celebrations on Saturday. Fox Business played a video on repeat…
Raw Story · June 17, 2026
GOP Congresswoman Is ‘Worried’ That Knicks Parade Will Feature ‘Anti-Semitism’ Because Jalen Brunson’s Wife Is Jewish
Rep. Claudia Tenney said she is concerned that the New York Knicks' victory parade on Thursday may be marred by anti-Semitism because Jalen Brunson's wife is Jewish. The post GOP Congresswoman Is ‘Worried’ That Knicks Parade Will Feature ‘Anti-Semitism’ Becau…
Mediaite · June 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗