Actual result
D+1.6
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+11.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+11.1 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+12.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-16 | 400 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-06 | 300 | D+11.0 | 9 |