Democratic
Bob Brooks
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ryan Mackenzie favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+3.6
70%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+2.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Ryan Mackenzie
Incumbent representative for PA-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
GBAO Strategies2026-07-02D+4.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Pennsylvania 7: Pennsylvania’s working-class swing district enters another knife fight
Pennsylvania’s 7th District is a high-priority Democratic pickup contest in the Lehigh Valley. Republican Ryan Mackenzie is defending the seat against Democrat Bob Brooks after Republicans captured it in 2024. The race sits in a region where working-class, su…
The Times of India · September 18, 2026
Dem House speaker torched for invoking 9/11 to attack key Trump policy: 'Totally wrong'
Ryan Mackenzie demands Joanna McClinton apologize after the Pennsylvania House Speaker linked Trump's immigration crackdown to potential 9/11 violence.
Fox News · September 16, 2026
Suspected GOP plant disqualified from key race after being disavowed by his own party
A state court in Pennsylvania has disqualified the nomination of Green Party candidate Andrew Tupone from Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, in a huge development that could be decisive in a closely watched battleground race.The development was report…
Raw Story · September 4, 2026
Elon Musk doles out campaign cash in Pa. to Perry, 2 other GOP lawmakers in swing districts
The richest man in the world, who was laser-focused on delivering Pennsylvania for President Donald Trump in 2024, is wielding his wallet in the Keystone State once again to support Republicans in three swing congressional districts ahead of the midterms. Ame…
Freerepublic.com · September 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗