Democratic
Bob Brooks
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Pennsylvania District 7 election, 2026
Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bob Brooks favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+3.9
78%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+3.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
4, averaging D+5.0Forecast spread
±5.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 4 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said D+2.3.
Republican
Ryan Mackenzie
Incumbent representative for PA-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bob BrooksDEM$5.3M raised
Spent $4.6MCash on hand $742kDebts $15k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.0M
- Retired$274k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$248k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$167k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$110k
States
- CA$657k
- PA$554k
- NY$504k
- MA$298k
- DC$122k
Ryan MackenzieREP · incumbent$5.3M raised
Spent $4.3MCash on hand $1.1MDebts $1k13% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GROW THE MAJORITY$824k
- DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$356k
- MACKENZIE FOR AMERICA$352k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$289k
- BATTLEGROUND PA$125k
Industries
- Retired$527k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$130k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$51k
- Legal & Professional Services$22k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$14k
States
- PA$519k
- FL$138k
- NY$94k
- TX$87k
- CA$59k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
The New House Will Have Genuine Working-Class People. Will It Matter?
The 2026 midterms were a referendum on President Trump’s economy, but anyone who says that means only gas and grocery prices has misread the mood. From data centers to the Trump family raking in billions to the corruption at the center of the ballroom constru…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Pennsylvania election result: Key seat flipped in battleground state as Democrat Bob Brooks beats US Representative Ryan Mackenzie
US midterm election 2026 results: Brooks, president of a Pennsylvania firefighters union, defeated Mackenzie in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to US media reports.
The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Childcare costs weigh on some voters before the midterm elections
Like so many Americans, Jenny Escolastico has watched wearily as the cost of living has risen, straining her household budget. But as a mother of two children under 5, she faces added pressure that could shape how she votes in November: childcare costs. Esco…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 21, 2026
GOP's favorite get-out-the-vote guru has a felon problem in a key swing state: report
One of the Republican Party’s best-known voter-registration activists has reportedly paid at least two people with serious criminal records to run get-out-the-vote operations in Pennsylvania, according to a new investigation.The Bulwark reported Friday that G…
Raw Story · October 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗