Democratic
Bob Brooks
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Bob Brooks favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.4
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+3.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
2, averaging D+4.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+0.5.
Republican
Ryan Mackenzie
Incumbent representative for PA-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Franklin & Marshall College2026-09-20D+5.0
GBAO Strategies2026-07-02D+4.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican's top aide exposed in group chat with Nazi memes and racist rhetoric: report
A top aide to a vulnerable Pennsylvania Republican was in a college group chat that traded racist and antisemitic memes, a report says.Arnaud Armstrong, who serves as communications director for Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), was a member of a GroupMe chat while…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026
Republican stopped cold mid-sentence as CNN host fact-checks claims to his face
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) was abruptly stopped mid-sentence Tuesday when CNN's Manu Raju confronted him with a blunt fact-check about rising fuel prices.The moment unfolded on "Inside Politics" when the Pennsylvania Republican, who won his battleground distr…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026
These Candidates Don’t Talk to Working People—They Are Working People
Claire Valdez, the New York state assemblymember now running to represent New York City’s 7th congressional district in the House of Representatives, joined a union long before she ever entered politics. It’s her history with unions that she credits with givi…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Pennsylvania 7: Pennsylvania’s working-class swing district enters another knife fight
Pennsylvania’s 7th District is a high-priority Democratic pickup contest in the Lehigh Valley. Republican Ryan Mackenzie is defending the seat against Democrat Bob Brooks after Republicans captured it in 2024. The race sits in a region where working-class, su…
The Times of India · September 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗