Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+4.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+4.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | PSB Research | R+1.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-10-08 | 400 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-07 | 442 | R+4.9 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-05 | 670 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 405 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-03 | 400 | R+12.0 | 1 |