Actual result
D+2.0
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.301 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2022-10-13 | 404 | D+1.0 | 1 |