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Toss-up · 2022 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2022 Pennsylvania House race, Susan Wild (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.0
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 55% | 0.301 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2022-10-131
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Pennsylvania House race?
Susan Wild (D) won, by about 2.0 points (D+2.0).
When was the 2022 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.