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Toss-up · 2002 Governor
Arizona Governor
In the 2002 Arizona Governor race, Janet Napolitano (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+6.1
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Analytical Group | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | D+8.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
14 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)2002-10-312
SurveyUSA2002-10-301
Analytical Group2002-10-264
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)2002-10-259
SurveyUSA2002-10-232
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2002 Arizona Governor race?
Janet Napolitano (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2002 Arizona Governor election held?
It was held in November 2002.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.