Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+6.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+3.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Analytical Group | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | D+8.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-10-31 | 666 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-30 | 661 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Analytical Group | 2002-10-26 | 600 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-10-25 | 666 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-23 | 661 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2002-10-20 | 300 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-10-17 | 666 | D+16.0 | 15 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-10-10 | 666 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-09 | 661 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-10-02 | 666 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2002-09-28 | 560 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-26 | 661 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2002-09-26 | 549 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2002-09-20 | 666 | R+6.0 | 7 |