Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+6.8
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Los Angeles Times | D+9.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Voter/Consumer Research | D+0.5 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 563 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Tarrance Group | 2002-10-28 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2002-10-27 | 740 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-26 | 563 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2002-10-24 | 879 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 563 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2002-10-17 | 666 | D+0.5 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-12 | 563 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2002-10-11 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-05 | 563 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2002-09-27 | 879 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-22 | 563 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2002-09-16 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-07 | 800 | D+6.0 | 1 |