Actual result
R+12.8
Final polls said
R+6.0
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+16.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Florida Poll | R+6.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fleming & Associates | R+6.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | EMC Research | R+5.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marketing Workshop | R+4.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+3.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-03 | 792 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 501 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| The Florida Poll | 2002-10-29 | 715 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-29 | 800 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-28 | 604 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-10-26 | 300 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2002-10-24 | 800 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2002-10-24 | 600 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-23 | 792 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-19 | 800 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-10-16 | 300 | D+4.0 | 17 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2002-10-16 | 600 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-10-13 | 600 | EVEN | 13 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-10-09 | 300 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-09 | 792 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-09 | 501 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-10-04 | 300 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2002-09-25 | 800 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-25 | 792 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-23 | 800 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-20 | 501 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| EMC Research | 2002-09-14 | 600 | R+5.0 | 8 |