Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+11.2
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | EPIC-MRA | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+11.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+13.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Detroit Free Press | D+13.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 730 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-11-01 | 500 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-29 | 600 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-29 | 500 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Detroit Free Press | 2002-10-28 | 513 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-26 | 730 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-22 | 600 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-21 | 500 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 730 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2002-10-15 | 600 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-14 | 500 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-05 | 730 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-10-04 | 500 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2002-09-28 | 600 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2002-09-16 | 600 | D+12.0 | 8 |