Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+2.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | R+3.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 7.9 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 600 | EVEN | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 600 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-31 | 625 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-10-31 | 929 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-10-28 | 929 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-10-13 | 1048 | EVEN | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 600 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-18 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2002-09-15 | 1038 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-13 | 625 | R+1.0 | 7 |