Actual result
D+16.4
Final polls said
D+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+18.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+14.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-10-30 | 905 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-28 | 405 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-10-09 | 905 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-25 | 421 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2002-09-10 | 734 | D+14.0 | 2 |