Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+17.4
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+16.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+16.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times | R+11.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | R+19.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | R+21.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | 2002-11-02 | 475 | R+21.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-31 | 624 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-30 | 1052 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 567 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2002-10-28 | 432 | R+21.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 567 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2002-10-17 | 1210 | R+19.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 567 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times | 2002-10-14 | 666 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-11 | 624 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-08 | 567 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-07 | 1052 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2002-10-07 | 1210 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-02 | 567 | R+22.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2002-09-25 | 813 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-09-20 | 936 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-19 | 567 | R+11.0 | 3 |