Actual result
D+9.0
Final polls said
D+18.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+17.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | West Chester University | D+17.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | D+19.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+19.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-30 | 805 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-28 | 668 | D+19.0 | 10 |
| West Chester University | 2002-10-26 | 472 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 2002-10-26 | 483 | D+19.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-24 | 636 | D+19.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-20 | 668 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-14 | 668 | D+21.0 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-12 | 636 | D+20.0 | 11 |
| West Chester University | 2002-10-11 | 472 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-06 | 668 | D+21.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-02 | 805 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-30 | 668 | D+23.0 | 14 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 2002-09-28 | 483 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2002-09-21 | 352 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-09-13 | 1279 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-09 | 668 | D+13.0 | 4 |