Actual result
R+17.9
Final polls said
R+12.3
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+18.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scripps Howard | R+15.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | R+13.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+12.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rice University | R+12.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | FM3 Research | R+3.0 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 602 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 602 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-31 | 683 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-31 | 1002 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Rice University | 2002-10-27 | 656 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-24 | 550 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 683 | R+11.0 | 7 |
| Scripps Howard | 2002-10-18 | 795 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| FM3 Research | 2002-10-18 | 900 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-17 | 550 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2002-10-15 | 1002 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 683 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-10 | 550 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 602 | R+22.0 | 4 |
| FM3 Research | 2002-10-09 | 666 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 2002-10-03 | 550 | R+27.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-01 | 666 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-18 | 683 | D+11.0 | 29 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 602 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Rice University | 2002-09-09 | 656 | D+9.0 | 27 |