Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+4.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Shares Corp. | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Urban Initiatives and Research | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+8.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+9.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-10-26 | 450 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2002-10-26 | 501 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Urban Initiatives and Research | 2002-10-23 | 418 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2002-10-22 | 382 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2002-09-28 | 1004 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2002-09-21 | 539 | D+8.0 | 4 |