Actual result
D+12.7
Final polls said
D+15.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Tyson Group | D+15.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+15.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+16.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 617 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 625 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 694 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| The Tyson Group | 2004-10-19 | 600 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-18 | 625 | D+20.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 621 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 617 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-27 | 625 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 617 | D+15.0 | 2 |