Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+8.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Solutions Group | R+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 599 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-26 | 500 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2004-10-20 | 573 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 616 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Market Solutions Group | 2004-10-18 | 600 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2004-10-10 | 401 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 599 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Market Solutions Group | 2004-10-03 | 602 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2004-09-25 | 575 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-22 | 631 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-13 | 600 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Market Solutions Group | 2004-09-04 | 600 | R+16.0 | 6 |