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Toss-up · 2004 President
Arizona President
In the 2004 Arizona President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+8.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Solutions Group | R+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-295
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2004-10-265
Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy2004-10-205
SurveyUSA2004-10-181
Market Solutions Group2004-10-183
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Arizona President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 10.5 points (R+10.5).
When was the 2004 Arizona President election held?
It was held in November 2004.