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Toss-up · 2004 President
Arizona President
In the 2004 Arizona President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+8.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Solutions Group | R+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+5.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-295
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2004-10-265
Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy2004-10-205
SurveyUSA2004-10-181
Market Solutions Group2004-10-183
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Arizona President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 10.5 points (R+10.5).
When was the 2004 Arizona President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.