Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | San Jose State | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Los Angeles Times | D+17.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 767 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2004-10-24 | 1086 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 743 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-16 | 925 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 703 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2004-10-14 | 1170 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 748 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2004-10-02 | 586 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-02 | 864 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| San Jose State | 2004-09-29 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2004-09-26 | 549 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-22 | 848 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-09-19 | 861 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2004-09-16 | 1170 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 598 | D+10.0 | 0 |