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Toss-up · 2004 President
California President
In the 2004 California President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | San Jose State | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Los Angeles Times | D+17.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-301
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)2004-10-243
SurveyUSA2004-10-241
Los Angeles Times2004-10-167
SurveyUSA2004-10-160
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 California President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 9.9 points (D+9.9).
When was the 2004 California President election held?
It was held in November 2004.