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Toss-up · 2004 President
California President
In the 2004 California President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | San Jose State | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Los Angeles Times | D+17.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-301
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)2004-10-243
SurveyUSA2004-10-241
Los Angeles Times2004-10-167
SurveyUSA2004-10-160
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 California President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 9.9 points (D+9.9).
When was the 2004 California President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.