Actual result
R+5.0
Final polls said
R+0.8
32 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | EMC Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 12 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Florida Poll | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Opinion Dynamics | D+5.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Polls (50)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 600 | EVEN | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 599 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 1433 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | EVEN | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-31 | 600 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-30 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-30 | 1521 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 742 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-29 | 1098 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-29 | 1138 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 600 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 800 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-27 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 601 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| EMC Research | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| The Florida Poll | 2004-10-25 | 802 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-24 | 600 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-24 | 510 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-24 | 944 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-23 | 567 | EVEN | 5 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-23 | 768 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 749 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-20 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2004-10-20 | 800 | EVEN | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-17 | 2131 | R+1.2 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-17 | 808 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-16 | 2173 | R+1.2 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 601 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-15 | 625 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-15 | 400 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2004-10-12 | 614 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-11 | 400 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-11 | 684 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-07 | 655 | EVEN | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-04 | 600 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-04 | 625 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-03 | 717 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| EMC Research | 2004-10-03 | 800 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-02 | 711 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 1925 | D+0.4 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-01 | 400 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-29 | 781 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-26 | 704 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-20 | 819 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-20 | 674 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-19 | 600 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 1669 | D+0.5 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-13 | 607 | R+6.0 | 1 |