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Toss-up · 2004 President
Florida President
In the 2004 Florida President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.0
Final polls said
R+0.8
32 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | EMC Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Florida Poll | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Opinion Dynamics | D+5.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
50 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-315
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Harris Insights & Analytics2004-10-319
Zogby Analytics2004-10-315
American Research Group2004-10-317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Florida President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 5.0 points (R+5.0).
When was the 2004 Florida President election held?
It was held in November 2004.