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Toss-up · 2004 President
Florida President
In the 2004 Florida President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.0
Final polls said
R+0.8
32 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Los Angeles Times | R+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | EMC Research | R+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Florida Poll | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Opinion Dynamics | D+5.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
50 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-315
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Harris Insights & Analytics2004-10-319
Zogby Analytics2004-10-315
American Research Group2004-10-317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Florida President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 5.0 points (R+5.0).
When was the 2004 Florida President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.