Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+0.6
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Central Surveys Inc. | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Opinion Dynamics | R+4.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Selzer & Co. | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 519 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 602 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 661 | EVEN | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-29 | 1119 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-27 | 806 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-24 | 649 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 690 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Central Surveys Inc. | 2004-10-16 | 502 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-15 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 571 | D+3.2 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-11 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 669 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-03 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2004-10-03 | 717 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 586 | D+6.6 | 7 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2004-09-30 | 599 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 784 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 700 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-18 | 631 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 400 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 626 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 566 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-13 | 600 | R+2.0 | 1 |