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Toss-up · 2004 President
Iowa President
In the 2004 Iowa President race, George W. Bush (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+0.6
17 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Central Surveys Inc. | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Opinion Dynamics | R+4.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Selzer & Co. | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
31 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-314
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Zogby Analytics2004-10-307
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-303
SurveyUSA2004-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Iowa President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 0.7 points (R+0.7).
When was the 2004 Iowa President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.