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Toss-up · 2004 President
Iowa President
In the 2004 Iowa President race, George W. Bush (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+0.6
17 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Central Surveys Inc. | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Opinion Dynamics | R+4.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Selzer & Co. | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
31 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-314
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Zogby Analytics2004-10-307
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-303
SurveyUSA2004-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Iowa President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 0.7 points (R+0.7).
When was the 2004 Iowa President election held?
It was held in November 2004.