Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.7
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+5.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | EPIC-MRA | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gallup | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | American Research Group | D+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Detroit Free Press | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
Polls (29)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 671 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 601 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 626 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 601 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 601 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-23 | 561 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2004-10-22 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2004-10-20 | 610 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 668 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2004-10-18 | 400 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 1228 | D+6.7 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-09 | 400 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 659 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-03 | 1207 | D+9.7 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-26 | 400 | EVEN | 3 |
| Detroit Free Press | 2004-09-25 | 600 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2004-09-22 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 800 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 615 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-19 | 600 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2004-09-17 | 610 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-17 | 400 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 1139 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-12 | 631 | D+6.0 | 3 |