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Toss-up · 2004 President
Michigan President
In the 2004 Michigan President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.7
15 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | EPIC-MRA | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gallup | D+6.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | D+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Detroit Free Press | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
29 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-313
SurveyUSA2004-10-290
Zogby Analytics2004-10-285
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2004-10-281
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-281
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Michigan President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2004 Michigan President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.