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Toss-up · 2004 President
Minnesota President
In the 2004 Minnesota President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+3.2
13 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Shares Corp. | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | St. Cloud State University | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gallup | D+8.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Minneapolis Star Tribune2004-10-311
Zogby Analytics2004-10-313
Gallup2004-10-295
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2004-10-282
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Minnesota President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 3.5 points (D+3.5).
When was the 2004 Minnesota President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.