Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+3.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Shares Corp. | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | St. Cloud State University | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Gallup | D+8.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2004-10-31 | 743 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-29 | 1078 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 709 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2004-10-28 | 996 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 603 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2004-10-23 | 690 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2004-10-21 | 508 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 784 | D+11.1 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-14 | 772 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-11 | 500 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2004-10-10 | 809 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-03 | 800 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 709 | D+8.3 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-21 | 500 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 709 | D+9.7 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-13 | 675 | EVEN | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-11 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2004-09-10 | 1035 | D+9.0 | 6 |