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Toss-up · 2004 President
New Mexico President
In the 2004 New Mexico President race, George W. Bush (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+0.7
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-301
American Research Group2004-10-292
Zogby Analytics2004-10-281
Research & Polling Inc.2004-10-282
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 New Mexico President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2004 New Mexico President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.