Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+0.7
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.3 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-29 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-28 | 1140 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-26 | 500 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-17 | 600 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 526 | D+9.5 | 10 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-05 | 673 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2004-10-03 | 872 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-03 | 802 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 541 | D+11.4 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 576 | D+12.7 | 13 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | D+5.0 | 6 |