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Toss-up · 2004 President
New Mexico President
In the 2004 New Mexico President race, George W. Bush (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+0.7
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-301
American Research Group2004-10-292
Zogby Analytics2004-10-281
Research & Polling Inc.2004-10-282
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 New Mexico President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2004 New Mexico President election held?
It was held in November 2004.