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Toss-up · 2004 President
New York President
In the 2004 New York President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+17.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+18.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+18.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | D+15.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+12.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2004-10-273
SurveyUSA2004-10-270
Marist College2004-10-250
SurveyUSA2004-10-105
Siena College2004-09-222
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 New York President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 18.4 points (D+18.4).
When was the 2004 New York President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.