Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+17.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+18.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+18.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+17.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+15.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+12.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2004-10-27 | 1062 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-27 | 628 | D+18.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2004-10-25 | 636 | D+18.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-10 | 606 | D+23.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2004-09-22 | 1121 | D+20.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-19 | 582 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 500 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2004-09-13 | 584 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-09 | 929 | D+5.0 | 13 |