Actual result
R+2.1
Final polls said
R+0.3
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Opinion Dynamics | R+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Columbus Dispatch | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | R+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Gallup | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Ohio University | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Market Shares Corp. | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Los Angeles Times | D+6.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Polls (44)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 1218 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-30 | 1111 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 816 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-10-29 | 819 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 602 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 1500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 831 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2004-10-24 | 2880 | EVEN | 2 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-24 | 585 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-24 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-23 | 537 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Ohio University | 2004-10-19 | 358 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-19 | 706 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-17 | 800 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 698 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-16 | 789 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-15 | 537 | EVEN | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 2024 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-10-14 | 757 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-10 | 564 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-05 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 761 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 1844 | D+0.3 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-29 | 597 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-27 | 664 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2004-09-26 | 2859 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2004-09-21 | 800 | EVEN | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 1718 | R+3.3 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-09-15 | 456 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 668 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-14 | 625 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-12 | 1500 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 709 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-06 | 661 | R+9.0 | 7 |