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Toss-up · 2004 President
Ohio President
In the 2004 Ohio President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.1
Final polls said
R+0.3
25 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Dynamics | R+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Columbus Dispatch | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | R+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | Gallup | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Ohio University | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Market Shares Corp. | D+4.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Los Angeles Times | D+6.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
44 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2004-10-316
Zogby Analytics2004-10-314
Gallup2004-10-306
SurveyUSA2004-10-300
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-301
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Ohio President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 2.1 points (R+2.1).
When was the 2004 Ohio President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.