← all past elections
Toss-up · 2004 President
Pennsylvania President
In the 2004 Pennsylvania President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+2.6
25 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | D+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | West Chester University | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Los Angeles Times | EVEN | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+3.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | Gallup | R+4.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
47 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2004-10-311
SurveyUSA2004-10-312
Zogby Analytics2004-10-312
Gallup2004-10-307
SurveyUSA2004-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Pennsylvania President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 2.5 points (D+2.5).
When was the 2004 Pennsylvania President election held?
It was held in November 2004.