Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+2.6
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | D+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | West Chester University | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Los Angeles Times | EVEN | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+3.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 16 | Gallup | R+4.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Polls (47)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 1204 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 657 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-30 | 1082 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 766 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-29 | 1022 | EVEN | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 600 | EVEN | 3 |
| West Chester University | 2004-10-26 | 684 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-25 | 670 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 803 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2004-10-24 | 1488 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-24 | 568 | EVEN | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-24 | 909 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-24 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-10-21 | 376 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-20 | 424 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2004-10-19 | 787 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-18 | 841 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 619 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 1402 | D+5.7 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-10 | 1343 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-09 | 578 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-05 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 776 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| West Chester University | 2004-10-03 | 600 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-10-02 | 709 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 1379 | D+5.4 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-28 | 578 | EVEN | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-27 | 654 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-27 | 625 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-24 | 726 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 800 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2004-09-20 | 1133 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-17 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 1185 | D+3.1 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-13 | 792 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-09-12 | 709 | EVEN | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-11 | 690 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-09 | 526 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 697 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-06 | 718 | R+1.0 | 4 |