Toss-up · 2004 President

Pennsylvania President

In the 2004 Pennsylvania President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

D+2.5

Final polls said

D+2.6

25 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+2.0	0.5	✓
2	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+2.0	0.5	✓
3	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	D+2.0	0.5	✓
4	American Research Group	D+3.0	0.5	✓
5	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+2.0	0.5	✓
6	Opinion Dynamics	D+3.0	0.5	✓
7	SurveyUSA	D+1.0	1.5	✓
8	Zogby Analytics	D+4.0	1.5	✓
9	Temple University Institute for Survey Research	D+1.0	1.5	✓
10	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	2.5	✗
11	West Chester University	D+5.0	2.5	✓
12	Los Angeles Times	EVEN	2.5	✗
13	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+5.0	2.5	✓
14	ABC News/The Washington Post	R+3.0	5.5	✗
15	Gallup	R+4.0	6.5	✗