Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+15.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+17.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+16.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Basswood Research | R+27.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 564 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-19 | 625 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-11 | 563 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-28 | 625 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-25 | 500 | R+27.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 684 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-09-08 | 600 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-08 | 600 | R+12.0 | 5 |