Actual result
R+14.3
Final polls said
R+11.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+13.6 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+12.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Tennessee | R+17.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+11.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+7.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | R+3.3 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 629 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 1210 | R+3.3 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-20 | 625 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 615 | R+22.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 992 | R+2.5 | 12 |
| University of Tennessee | 2004-10-14 | 656 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| University of Tennessee | 2004-10-13 | 656 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2004-10-10 | 624 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 637 | R+19.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 983 | R+0.9 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-22 | 500 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 601 | R+14.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-17 | 600 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 943 | D+4.5 | 19 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | R+16.0 | 2 |