Actual result
R+22.9
Final polls said
R+22.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+23.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+22.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+22.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-27 | 602 | R+22.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-10 | 598 | R+23.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 642 | R+21.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-18 | 600 | R+22.0 | 1 |