Actual result
R+8.2
Final polls said
R+5.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond Times-Dispatch | R+9.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 606 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-24 | 625 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Richmond Times-Dispatch | 2004-10-23 | 751 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 664 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-26 | 625 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-22 | 744 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-20 | 400 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-13 | 600 | R+6.0 | 2 |