Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
R+0.1
14 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Opinion Dynamics | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Market Shares Corp. | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lake Research Partners | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Gallup | R+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 601 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-29 | 1119 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 601 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-26 | 600 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2004-10-25 | 545 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-18 | 678 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-18 | 600 | EVEN | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | EVEN | 0 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2004-10-16 | 623 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 883 | D+3.8 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-14 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-08 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2004-10-08 | 401 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Moore Information Group | 2004-10-05 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-04 | 704 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2004-10-04 | 600 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 844 | D+2.5 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-09-24 | 562 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-20 | 400 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | 2004-09-18 | 485 | R+14.0 | 14 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2004-09-18 | 468 | R+14.0 | 14 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-18 | 785 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 771 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-14 | 600 | EVEN | 0 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-11 | 631 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-07 | 400 | R+2.0 | 2 |