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Toss-up · 2004 President
Wisconsin President
In the 2004 Wisconsin President race, John Kerry (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
R+0.1
14 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Market Shares Corp. | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Lake Research Partners | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gallup | R+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
32 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-303
Gallup2004-10-298
Zogby Analytics2004-10-287
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-282
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Wisconsin President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 0.4 points (D+0.4).
When was the 2004 Wisconsin President election held?
It was held in November 2004.