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Toss-up · 2004 President
Wisconsin President
In the 2004 Wisconsin President race, John Kerry (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
R+0.1
14 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | R+3.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Market Shares Corp. | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Lake Research Partners | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gallup | R+8.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
32 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2004-10-316
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-303
Gallup2004-10-298
Zogby Analytics2004-10-287
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-282
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Wisconsin President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 0.4 points (D+0.4).
When was the 2004 Wisconsin President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.