Actual result
D+19.9
Final polls said
D+19.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+19.4 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+19.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+18.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Los Angeles Times | D+22.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 767 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2004-10-24 | 1086 | D+19.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 743 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 697 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-10-16 | 925 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2004-10-14 | 1170 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 741 | D+17.0 | 3 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2004-09-28 | 570 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2004-09-19 | 861 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2004-09-16 | 1170 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 586 | D+18.0 | 2 |