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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Florida Senate
In the 2004 Florida Senate race, Mel Martinez (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
D+0.7
20 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | EMC Research | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Florida Poll | D+3.1 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Opinion Dynamics | D+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2004-10-302
Gallup2004-10-302
SurveyUSA2004-10-301
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-307
Zogby Analytics2004-10-301
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Florida Senate race?
Mel Martinez (R) won, by about 1.1 points (R+1.1).
When was the 2004 Florida Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.