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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Florida Senate
In the 2004 Florida Senate race, Mel Martinez (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
D+0.7
20 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | EMC Research | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Florida Poll | D+3.1 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Opinion Dynamics | D+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
InsiderAdvantage2004-10-302
Gallup2004-10-302
SurveyUSA2004-10-301
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-307
Zogby Analytics2004-10-301
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Florida Senate race?
Mel Martinez (R) won, by about 1.1 points (R+1.1).
When was the 2004 Florida Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.