Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
D+0.7
20 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | EMC Research | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Florida Poll | D+3.1 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Opinion Dynamics | D+6.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-30 | 400 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-30 | 1521 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 738 | EVEN | 1 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 599 | EVEN | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-29 | 1138 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-29 | 1098 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 625 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| EMC Research | 2004-10-26 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 599 | EVEN | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-25 | 700 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| The Florida Poll | 2004-10-25 | 802 | D+3.1 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-24 | 944 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 738 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-20 | 400 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2004-10-20 | 800 | EVEN | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-17 | 808 | EVEN | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 596 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-15 | 625 | EVEN | 1 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2004-10-12 | 614 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-07 | 655 | EVEN | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-06 | 679 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-04 | 625 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-03 | 717 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-02 | 706 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2004-10-01 | 400 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-20 | 819 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-20 | 674 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-13 | 602 | D+4.0 | 5 |