Actual result
R+4.6
Final polls said
R+2.0
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Viewpoint | R+2.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Tyson Group | R+1.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+0.3 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Market Research Institute Inc. | D+11.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 616 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 625 | D+0.3 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 686 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-20 | 800 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-20 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| The Tyson Group | 2004-10-19 | 600 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-18 | 625 | EVEN | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 621 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-04 | 500 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 617 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| American Viewpoint | 2004-09-29 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-27 | 625 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-26 | 600 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-09-20 | 800 | D+11.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 580 | D+10.0 | 15 |