Actual result
D+37.1
Final polls said
D+56.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+55.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+48.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+55.5 | 18.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+56.0 | 18.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | 2004-10-25 | 817 | D+56.0 | 19 |
| Marist College | 2004-09-15 | 679 | D+48.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-09 | 1438 | D+48.0 | 11 |