Actual result
R+27.7
Final polls said
R+28.2
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+28.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+25.9 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Dynamics | R+30.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+30.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+25.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+24.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Columbus Dispatch | R+24.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+38.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 602 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 813 | R+28.0 | 0 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | R+30.0 | 2 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-10-29 | 823 | R+30.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-27 | 1500 | R+38.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+31.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 818 | R+26.0 | 2 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2004-10-24 | 2880 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 698 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-17 | 800 | R+30.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-10-16 | 789 | R+25.0 | 3 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-10-14 | 679 | R+27.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 747 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2004-09-26 | 2859 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 800 | R+28.0 | 0 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2004-09-15 | 456 | R+30.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-12 | 625 | R+26.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 698 | R+18.0 | 10 |