Actual result
R+10.6
Final polls said
R+18.8
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+17.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+18.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | West Chester University | R+19.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | R+20.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Opinion Dynamics | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 650 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 758 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 600 | R+21.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-29 | 1022 | R+20.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+26.0 | 15 |
| West Chester University | 2004-10-26 | 684 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 803 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2004-10-24 | 1488 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-24 | 909 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-10-21 | 376 | R+21.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-20 | 800 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2004-10-19 | 787 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-18 | 841 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 608 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-10-10 | 1343 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 767 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| West Chester University | 2004-10-03 | 600 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-10-02 | 679 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-27 | 625 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-24 | 726 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-09-21 | 800 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| Temple University Institute for Survey Research | 2004-09-20 | 1133 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2004-09-13 | 792 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2004-09-12 | 491 | R+26.0 | 15 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-11 | 690 | R+17.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 861 | R+18.0 | 7 |