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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate race, Arlen Specter (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.6
Final polls said
R+18.8
14 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+17.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | West Chester University | R+19.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | R+20.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Opinion Dynamics | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-317
SurveyUSA2004-10-308
Zogby Analytics2004-10-3010
Quinnipiac University2004-10-299
Zogby Analytics2004-10-2615
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Arlen Specter (R) won, by about 10.6 points (R+10.6).
When was the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.