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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate race, Arlen Specter (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.6
Final polls said
R+18.8
14 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+17.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+18.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | West Chester University | R+19.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | R+20.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+21.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Temple University Institute for Survey Research | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Opinion Dynamics | R+22.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-317
SurveyUSA2004-10-308
Zogby Analytics2004-10-3010
Quinnipiac University2004-10-299
Zogby Analytics2004-10-2615
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Arlen Specter (R) won, by about 10.6 points (R+10.6).
When was the 2004 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.