Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+8.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Basswood Research | R+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-10-27 | 400 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 559 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-19 | 625 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-11 | 557 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-06 | 500 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-09-29 | 400 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-09-28 | 500 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-28 | 625 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-25 | 500 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 676 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-09-08 | 500 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-08 | 600 | R+13.0 | 3 |