Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+13.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Dynamics | D+14.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+15.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+6.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+16.8 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+23.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Market Shares Corp. | D+24.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+24.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Dynamics | 2004-10-30 | 700 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 601 | D+23.0 | 12 |
| Tarrance Group | 2004-10-26 | 500 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 601 | D+23.0 | 12 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2004-10-25 | 545 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-14 | 500 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2004-10-10 | 500 | D+24.0 | 13 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2004-10-08 | 401 | D+24.0 | 13 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2004-09-24 | 562 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2004-09-18 | 690 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| University of Wisconsin Survey Center | 2004-09-18 | 468 | D+14.0 | 3 |