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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2004 Wisconsin Senate race, Russ Feingold (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+16.0
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+13.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Dynamics | D+14.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Wisconsin Survey Center | D+15.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+6.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+23.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Market Shares Corp. | D+24.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+24.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Opinion Dynamics2004-10-303
Zogby Analytics2004-10-3012
Tarrance Group2004-10-266
Zogby Analytics2004-10-2612
University of Wisconsin Survey Center2004-10-254
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Wisconsin Senate race?
Russ Feingold (D) won, by about 11.2 points (D+11.2).
When was the 2004 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.