Actual result
D+10.4
Final polls said
D+7.1
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+8.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | The New York Times | D+8.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | D+13.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+6.2 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+6.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+2.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (29)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-11-06 | 500 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2005-11-06 | 377 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2005-11-05 | 798 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2005-11-03 | 394 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2005-11-03 | 724 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2005-11-03 | 728 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2005-11-02 | 775 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2005-10-30 | 410 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2005-10-28 | 421 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2005-10-27 | 636 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2005-10-26 | 403 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2005-10-25 | 449 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2005-10-23 | 410 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2005-10-23 | 525 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-10-19 | 500 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2005-10-18 | 403 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times | 2005-10-16 | 750 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2005-10-16 | 371 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2005-10-14 | 702 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2005-10-09 | 537 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2005-10-06 | 666 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2005-10-05 | 321 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2005-10-05 | 638 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-10-04 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2005-09-23 | 463 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2005-09-23 | 770 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2005-09-23 | 635 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2005-09-22 | 874 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-09-14 | 500 | D+11.0 | 1 |