Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Financial Dynamics | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2005-11-06 | 804 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2005-11-03 | 625 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-11-02 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2005-10-27 | 407 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-10-27 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2005-10-25 | 1004 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-10-24 | 666 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2005-10-19 | 625 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Financial Dynamics | 2005-10-15 | 435 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2005-10-15 | 750 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-10-10 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-09-28 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2005-09-17 | 636 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2005-09-14 | 500 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2005-09-14 | 625 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2005-09-13 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |