Actual result
R+17.0
Final polls said
R+14.1
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Times | R+17.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | R+16.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Datamar Analytics | R+18.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Institute of California | R+18.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+14.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+13.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | San Jose State | R+13.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+13.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | R+10.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Zogby Analytics | R+8.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datamar Analytics | 2006-11-03 | 692 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 553 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1015 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2006-10-27 | 795 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 1155 | R+8.8 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-24 | 507 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-23 | 877 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2006-10-19 | 1076 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | R+7.4 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-10 | 500 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| San Jose State | 2006-09-28 | 585 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2006-09-25 | 989 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 445 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2006-09-19 | 557 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2006-09-17 | 1091 | R+17.0 | 0 |
| Datamar Analytics | 2006-09-14 | 1879 | R+23.0 | 6 |