Actual result
R+7.1
Final polls said
R+8.0
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+8.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Bendixen & Amandi International | R+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+10.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+10.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cromer Group | R+11.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | InsiderAdvantage | R+19.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-05 | 500 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 682 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-11-01 | 804 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1005 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-31 | 625 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-26 | 500 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 952 | R+4.8 | 2 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2006-10-24 | 800 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-20 | 816 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-20 | 750 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Cromer Group | 2006-10-18 | 389 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-17 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-16 | 625 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | R+9.2 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-08 | 514 | R+13.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-07 | 500 | R+19.0 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-05 | 783 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-02 | 500 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-27 | 803 | R+21.0 | 14 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2006-09-24 | 800 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-21 | 625 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-19 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 2006-09-16 | 818 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-12 | 512 | R+8.0 | 1 |