Actual result
D+9.7
Final polls said
D+6.0
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | D+9.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+3.9 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.2 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-11-02 | 756 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 301 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 507 | D+1.2 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-22 | 500 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+2.2 | 7 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-10-10 | 800 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-09-12 | 600 | EVEN | 10 |